Friday, March 12, 2010

The More Teams, The Better

I've always been of the opinion that 14+ team leagues are the best.  Personally, I prefer 16 team leagues, but as it's generally hard to find 15 friends willing to drop the cash and follow the league, I always end up in 12 or 14 team leagues.  Of course I could just join a random league, but I always find it much more enjoyable playing amongst friends.

As of now, I'm currently a member of 4 leagues.  Three are in Yahoo! and one is ESPN.  I prefer these leagues, because they are category based as opposed to points based.  Despite my strong dislike of minimum team leagues, I just drafted my first team of the year, a 10 team league.  As soon as the draft began, I immediately regretted having joined.  I think it's going to be fun regardless, but even if you just look at my team alone, you have to figure that everyones team is just stacked.  I like 14-16 team leagues because it requires managers to actively be involved in free agency and trading.  This 10 team league is going to involve little effort, as almost every player is an all-star.

Just to see if I'm completely full of it or not, I will provide consistent updates of my personal team's peformances.  As of last night, my ESPN league team looks as follows, with round drafted in parenthesis:

C - Victor Martinez (5)
1B- Ryan Howard (2)
2B- Chase Utley (1)
SS- Troy Tulowitzki (3)
3B- Pablo Sandoval (4)
OF- Andre Ethier (6)
OF- Jason Bay (7)
OF- Hunter Pence (12)
Util- Chone Figgins (8)
Util- Billy Butler (11)
P- Scott Baker (16)
P- Andy Pettitte (17)
P- Ted Lilly (18)
P- Jonathan Sanchez (19)
P- Francisco Cordero (9)
P- Billy Wagner (10)
P- Carlos Marmol (13)
P- Rafael Soriano (15)
BN- Manny Ramirez (14)
BN- John Maine (20)
BN- Erik Bedard (21)
BN - Scott Feldman (22)

At first glace, you must be thinking exactly what everyone in my draft was thinking.  What?!  Yes, I drafted 4 closers.  Yes, I drafted all of my closers before any starters.  Yes, I didn't draft a pitcher until the 9th round, a starter until the 16th round!  Let me begin that this league was created a bit differently than most I'm used to.  Everyone sets up their leagues differently, so this may be familiar to you.  First, as stated in my previous post, I do not draft pitchers early.  Especially in a 10 team league, it's completely foolish to draft pitchers in the first five rounds.

Let's look at the lineup.  Categories that are missing in this league are 2B and 3B.  First let me state that I am a New York Mets fan.  I drafted Phillies players with my first two picks.  Chase Utley is one of the most unhateable players in the game and easily the best 2B and a limited depth position.  Easy choice at 6th overall.  Second, I was deciding between Ryan Howard and David Wright.  I'm not a Howard fan, but with no doubles involved, I had to go with the guy who's guaranteed 40+ homeruns.  I don't feel the need to explain 3 and 4, but if anyone has any questions, feel free to ask.  I love Victor Martinez in the 5th round.  Arguably the 2nd best catcher in the game, I assumed he'd be gone and had planned on waiting for Wieters a few rounds later.  As he slipped to me, I couldn't pass him up at yet another limited depth position.

Here's my pitching logic.  Most leagues I've been in were set up with 5 SP spots and 2 RP spots.  This league has 8 P spots, which can be used for starters or relievers.  It occurs maybe twice a year where you have 5 SP pitching the same day on your team.  I drafted 4 RP, which will be in my "rotation" every day of the year.  I should undoubtely have more closers than anyone else in the league, virtually guaranteeing me to win the saves category.  Now, of course closers are going to blow saves here and there, but having the closers in my rotation every day should keep my ERA and WHIP pretty low every week.  Now, I obviously don't have a steller rotation, but what I do have is solid pitchers who will get exactly what I need out of them.  You want Lincecum in round 3? I'm very happy with Troy Tulowitski and Ted Lilly leading my staff, who's just consistently solid year in and year out.

Tulowitski and Figgins allow me to compete every week in SB.  I think Billy Butler is an absolute steal in round 11.  The fact that I have Manny Ramirez on my bench, whom I acquired in the 14th round also confuses me.  I have no idea why everyone was afraid to draft him.  This may prove to be a huge pickup for me, and worst case scenario is he sits on my bench.  I can't argue with that.

I would love feedback on this.  You'll see huge differences in my draft style in my other leagues, but based on my explanations here, comment away.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Don't Draft Pitchers Too Early

I've made a habit of consistently finishing in the top 3 in fantasy leagues by sticking to one thing: Drafting batters until there is literally no one left worth drafting.  Pitching, at least in Yahoo! and ESPN leagues where matchups are decided based on categories and not a points system, is virtually overrated.

Let's just go through the first few rounds:

Round 1:
No pitchers at all should be drafted in this round.  One should never have to decide between drafting (let's say) Johan Santana/Tim Lincecum/Roy Halladay, when Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, and David Wright are going to be available where you might normally have selected one of these pitchers.  Your first round pick should be your team's best player.  Batters play every day.  Pitchers pitch twice every other week.  It's not worth losing every day production for one of these pitchers.

Round 2:
Someone will undoubtedly draft at least one of the top 5 pitchers, but not you.  Why?  Well with Joe Mauer most likely available, perhaps Evan Longoria, Matt Holliday, and Ryan Howard, you just can't give up this type of offensive production.  Are you really going to give up a sure thing at the position with the least depth (Mauer) for Roy Halladay?  I'll take losses in CG all day if I'm winning hits and average because I drafted the best catcher in the league.

Round 3:
All the top 5 pitchers will probably be gone by now.  So what?  Now someone's going to do something nice for you and probably draft King Felix.  Great!  I'll draft Ian Kinsler, Jose Reyes (he's going to drop this far because people hate drafting injured players of the previous year), Ichiro, or Grady Sizemore.  In a purely hypothetical situation, after 3 rounds with let's say the 6th pick, you might have Ryan Braun, Joe Mauer, and Ian Kinsler.  I'd feel pretty comfortable with those three instead of two and an ace of a pitcher.  But let's move on.

Round 4:
Say goodbye to Zack Greinke.  Oh no!  Where have all the aces gone?  To managers who aren't going to win the league, that's who.  Pablo Sandoval, Brian Roberts, Mark Reynolds and Jayson Werth look like pretty good alternatives to me.  You might now have the best outfielder, best catcher, a top 3 second baseman and Pablo Sandoval, who just rakes, as your core lineup.  I wouldn't want to face that lineup.

Round 5:
Here's where it gets tricky.  Now you just simply need to see who's available.  This is where i'll stop going round for round.  I happen to be high on Kevin Youkilis, but if he's available here, which he should be, he's a steal.  If you weren't lucky enough to draft Joe Mauer, you should be able to find Brian McCann or Victor Martinez down here.  Catcher depth this year is probably better than most, but if you can have a top 3 catcher by round 5, jump on it.  Worst case here is you go for pitching and snag Verlander, Lester or perhaps even Cliff Lee.  Why do that though, when you can probably wait another two rounds and draft Josh Johnson?

Here's just a small list of pitchers that you should be able to snag in rounds 6+:

Adam Wainwright
Josh Johnson
Javier Vazquez
Yovani Gallardo
Chris Carpenter
Tommy Hanson
Matt Cain
Josh Beckett
Cole Hamels

With players of this caliber, do you really want to lose 1 or more elite batters in the first 4 rounds for one of the top 5 pitchers?  It's just silly.  I'll take a strong lineup along with Wainwright and Matt Cain, and not only am I almost a lock to win most batting categories, but there's a great chance i'll win pitching as well.  In a 16 category league, with a great lineup, you can almost guarantee yourself to win 5/8 batting categories.  Like a diversified portfolio, you can expect half of your batters to make up for any poor weekly performances of your other batters.  If Tim Lincecum has one terrible week, that's going to be hard to overcome.  If Ryan Braun has a terrible week, well Joe Mauer's not going to let his poor average bring your team down. 

Leave the pitching for the later rounds.  I'll be seeing you in the playoffs.

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