Don't Draft Pitchers Too Early

I've made a habit of consistently finishing in the top 3 in fantasy leagues by sticking to one thing: Drafting batters until there is literally no one left worth drafting.  Pitching, at least in Yahoo! and ESPN leagues where matchups are decided based on categories and not a points system, is virtually overrated.

Let's just go through the first few rounds:

Round 1:
No pitchers at all should be drafted in this round.  One should never have to decide between drafting (let's say) Johan Santana/Tim Lincecum/Roy Halladay, when Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, and David Wright are going to be available where you might normally have selected one of these pitchers.  Your first round pick should be your team's best player.  Batters play every day.  Pitchers pitch twice every other week.  It's not worth losing every day production for one of these pitchers.

Round 2:
Someone will undoubtedly draft at least one of the top 5 pitchers, but not you.  Why?  Well with Joe Mauer most likely available, perhaps Evan Longoria, Matt Holliday, and Ryan Howard, you just can't give up this type of offensive production.  Are you really going to give up a sure thing at the position with the least depth (Mauer) for Roy Halladay?  I'll take losses in CG all day if I'm winning hits and average because I drafted the best catcher in the league.

Round 3:
All the top 5 pitchers will probably be gone by now.  So what?  Now someone's going to do something nice for you and probably draft King Felix.  Great!  I'll draft Ian Kinsler, Jose Reyes (he's going to drop this far because people hate drafting injured players of the previous year), Ichiro, or Grady Sizemore.  In a purely hypothetical situation, after 3 rounds with let's say the 6th pick, you might have Ryan Braun, Joe Mauer, and Ian Kinsler.  I'd feel pretty comfortable with those three instead of two and an ace of a pitcher.  But let's move on.

Round 4:
Say goodbye to Zack Greinke.  Oh no!  Where have all the aces gone?  To managers who aren't going to win the league, that's who.  Pablo Sandoval, Brian Roberts, Mark Reynolds and Jayson Werth look like pretty good alternatives to me.  You might now have the best outfielder, best catcher, a top 3 second baseman and Pablo Sandoval, who just rakes, as your core lineup.  I wouldn't want to face that lineup.

Round 5:
Here's where it gets tricky.  Now you just simply need to see who's available.  This is where i'll stop going round for round.  I happen to be high on Kevin Youkilis, but if he's available here, which he should be, he's a steal.  If you weren't lucky enough to draft Joe Mauer, you should be able to find Brian McCann or Victor Martinez down here.  Catcher depth this year is probably better than most, but if you can have a top 3 catcher by round 5, jump on it.  Worst case here is you go for pitching and snag Verlander, Lester or perhaps even Cliff Lee.  Why do that though, when you can probably wait another two rounds and draft Josh Johnson?

Here's just a small list of pitchers that you should be able to snag in rounds 6+:

Adam Wainwright
Josh Johnson
Javier Vazquez
Yovani Gallardo
Chris Carpenter
Tommy Hanson
Matt Cain
Josh Beckett
Cole Hamels

With players of this caliber, do you really want to lose 1 or more elite batters in the first 4 rounds for one of the top 5 pitchers?  It's just silly.  I'll take a strong lineup along with Wainwright and Matt Cain, and not only am I almost a lock to win most batting categories, but there's a great chance i'll win pitching as well.  In a 16 category league, with a great lineup, you can almost guarantee yourself to win 5/8 batting categories.  Like a diversified portfolio, you can expect half of your batters to make up for any poor weekly performances of your other batters.  If Tim Lincecum has one terrible week, that's going to be hard to overcome.  If Ryan Braun has a terrible week, well Joe Mauer's not going to let his poor average bring your team down. 

Leave the pitching for the later rounds.  I'll be seeing you in the playoffs.